My vote is one: does it matter?

I may hate to write about politics, but the situation in Kenya is very alarming, from an economist point of view. The March date may be just a date for many, but it is crossing the mind of every CEO, every risk analyst and even the small and medium enterprise owner(s).

It is a factor in every single decision of a business, from hiring, expanding, choice of financing, issuing of loans and even investment in employee training. It doesn't surprise me, therefore, to see an under subscription of the two-year treasury bond on issue, dated 24th Dec.2012. Caution towards a government bond is a clear indicator of the uncertainty and disillusionment of investors with our leadership.

Since the beginning of December, the US Dollar has gained an incredible 0.15 on the Kenyan shilling, a trend expected to continue over the first quarter 2013. This may seem very little to the layman, but its very substantial to any serious investor or businessman. Further political tension will push the Shilling further and fears are that at some point it will lose the resilience it has depicted over the last one year.

Good news, however, is that the agricultural sector, the main driver of our economy, will be stable given the "rains promise'' and if all goes well we can see a reduced loss of value, though this will mean that international corporations will get losses on futures premiums and option costs.

The implication may be more than what is there for the eye to see. The aversive behavior of investors currently in the country means that there will be less 'business' and the economy will slow down generally due to reduced scale of operations by companies and major organizations. It portends a slump in the demand for unskilled and semi-skilled labour and more difficult times for the common Kenyan.

In nutshell, this entire literature assigns importance to decent political behavior, the need for wise voting and an electorate system which works with honesty, integrity and fairness. Your vote may seem insignificant, but remember, it draws the future for you.